By Dr Alborz Bahador, Clinical Psychologist, California, USA
“The real question now is not whether another uprising will happen, but when — and whether the world will be ready to recognize and support the Iranian people’s demand for freedom.”
That question, posed with urgency on November 15, 2025, at the Free Iran Convention 2025 in Washington, D.C., is no longer theoretical. Less than two months later, unfolding events are confirming what hundreds of scholars, policymakers, and experts warned: Iran has entered a decisive and irreversible phase.
The convention brought together hundreds of Iranian American scholars, professionals, human rights advocates, youth, and community leaders from across the United States, joined by prominent former U.S. and European officials. Their goal was clear—to present a research-based, concrete roadmap for a democratic transition in Iran.
The conclusion was unequivocal:
the clerical regime has entered its final phase, and a democratic alternative capable of replacing it already exists—the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
Research-Based Analysis: Society Ripe for Change
The first panel, titled “Society Ripe for Change,” focused on an in-depth, research-driven analysis presented by experts affiliated with FISN, highlighting why Iran’s crisis is no longer reversible under clerical rule.
Dr. Kazem Kazerounian, former dean of engineering at the University of Connecticut, described Iran’s economy as structurally collapsed, transformed into an instrument of repression and plunder. He cited evidence showing that nearly 80 percent of Iranians now live below the poverty line, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls vast sectors of the economy.
Dr. Hossein Saiedian, a computer scientist at the University of Kansas, linked these failures to what he called the regime’s “core foundational problem: illegitimacy.” He argued that the clerical establishment “stole the 1979 revolution” and emphasized the NCRI’s historic role—particularly its 2002 exposure of the Natanz nuclear facility—as a courageous and patriotic act that reshaped international policy and revealed the regime’s true nature.
From Protests to Permanent Defiance
The final portion of the panel examined how dissent in Iran transformed from episodic unrest into a sustained national movement. California based physician and researcher Dr. Ashraf Zadshir traced how isolated, issue-specific protests evolved into nationwide uprisings in 2017, 2019, and 2022, spreading across all 31 provinces and involving workers, students, women, ethnic minorities, and marginalized communities.
Dr. Zadshir emphasized that these uprisings represented a fundamental break from the past. Protesters openly rejected the entire ruling system, with chants denouncing both “reformists” and “hardliners,” signaling the collapse of the regime’s long-standing narrative that internal reform was possible.
She noted that escalating repression including mass arrests, executions, and militarized crackdowns has failed to restore control. Instead, it has fueled political awareness and resistance, particularly among youth. According to Dr. Zadshir, Iran has entered a “permanent state of defiance,” in which opposition is continuous, decentralized, and resilient, making a return to pre-uprising stability impossible.
She concluded: “The real question now is not whether another uprising will happen, but when and whether the world will be ready to recognize and support the Iranian people’s demand for freedom.”
Less than two months after the convention, events on the ground have confirmed this assessment. The predictions presented in Washington have rapidly materialized, reinforcing the conclusion that Iran is no longer experiencing isolated crises but a sustained struggle for democratic transformation
A Legitimate Democratic Alternative
Organizers emphasized a central message that resonated throughout the convention:
- Iran’s crisis is irreversible under clerical rule
- Structural conditions for regime change now exist
- The NCRI, anchored in Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan, stands as an organized, democratic alternative
The plan envisions a free, secular, non-nuclear republic, grounded in universal suffrage, free elections, separation of religion and state, gender equality, abolition of the death penalty, and autonomy for Iran’s nationalities.
Maryam Rajavi: “The Regime Has Reached Its Final Phase”
Addressing the convention online from France, NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi declared that the regime has reached “the final phase of its winter.” She described a system incapable of reform and trapped in repression, corruption, warmongering, and nuclear brinkmanship.
Reiterating her “Third Option,” Rajavi rejected both appeasement and foreign military intervention, calling instead for the overthrow of the Velayat-e Faqih system by the Iranian people and their organized Resistance.
“The central question facing the Iranian people and the international community,” she said, “is how meaningful and lasting change can be achieved in Iran.”
She warned that decades of Western appeasement have empowered fundamentalism and blocked democratic change, even as Iranian society has become a powder keg—with workers, teachers, retirees, marginalized communities, and MEK-affiliated Resistance Units confronting the IRGC nationwide.
Mrs. Rajavi stressed:
“We are not fighting to seize power. Our goal is to return sovereignty to the people of Iran.”
She pledged that following the regime’s fall, a provisional government would organize elections for a Constituent Assembly within six months.
A Moment of Responsibility
What was predicted on November 15, 2025, is now unfolding in real time. The question before the international community is no longer whether change is coming, but whether the world will act with the foresight and responsibility required to recognize and support the Iranian people’s legitimate demand for democracy and freedom.
Crucially, this moment is not defined by uncertainty or the absence of alternatives. A structured, credible, and organized democratic alternative already exists. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has demonstrated over decades its capacity to articulate a clear political vision, mobilize support inside and outside Iran, and prepare responsibly for a peaceful transfer of power to the people.
Unlike spontaneous or leaderless movements that often leave power vacuums, the NCRI has outlined a transparent transition framework—including the formation of a provisional government, the organization of free elections, and the drafting of a democratic constitution by an elected Constituent Assembly. Its platform, anchored in Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan, provides concrete guarantees for pluralism, gender equality, separation of religion and state, and the protection of fundamental human rights.
Recognizing the NCRI is therefore not an act of interference, but an acknowledgment of political reality and popular aspiration. International recognition would help ensure that Iran’s inevitable transition occurs peacefully, lawfully, and with national sovereignty intact, minimizing the risk of chaos, fragmentation, or renewed authoritarianism.
History will judge not only the courage of the Iranian people who rise against tyranny, but also the clarity and moral responsibility of those who choose whether to stand with a democratic alternative capable of returning power to its rightful owners—the people of Iran.
Now is the time to act.
References
- National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Free Iran Convention 2025: Roadmap for Democratic Transition. Washington, D.C., November 15, 2025.
- Rajavi, M. The Ten-Point Plan for the Future of Iran. NCRI, 2025.
- Associated Press. Iran Faces Widespread Protests Amid Economic Collapse. 2024–2025.
- The Guardian. Iran Protests: Economic Crisis and Nationwide Defiance Challenge the Regime. 2024–2025.
- Washington Post. Iran’s Protests Signal Deepening Legitimacy Crisis for the Regime. 2024–2025.
- United Nations Human Rights Council. Report of the Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Iran. 2024.
- Clingendael Institute. Protests in Iran: Dynamics, Drivers, and Political Implications. 2023.
- Albright, D., & Heinonen, O. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Timeline and Policy Impact. Institute for Science and International Security.